The following are questions frequently asked Rick Schwartz, author of Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States:
Q. Why did you write the book?
I have lived in the Mid-Atlantic region all my life. I became interested in hurricanes when I was a teenager. From that time until my book came out, there was no resource that provided a regional hurricane history. In fact, it seemed like a lost history.
I researched the book for more than six years. I discovered an extensive, fascinating and compelling history. Residents need to be aware of it, as the kinds of hurricanes that have visited in the past will return.
My research included records dating back to the 1600s. Voices from the past seemed to whisper, "Don't let our observations be lost. Future generations need to know what we've seen and experienced."
It crucial to learn from the past to better prepare for the future. The kinds of things hurricanes have done will be the kinds of things they do again. My book offers vital information.
Q. What are your credentials, and what are you trying to accomplish?
I have tracked Atlantic hurricanes during the past 40 years. I spent six years intensively researching and writing the book. This included more than 10,000 miles of driving, about 100 interviews and viewing countless rolls of microfilm. I have also read the hurricane history works of many other authors. My Web site www.midatlantichurricanes.comcontains a list of some of these important books.
My book is obscure and may remain so. Through it, I hope to inform the public about the hurricane history of the Middle Atlantic states and what it might portend, especially before the next big one. Such knowledge, I believe, will reduce casualties and property losses. My time and resources to educate are limited, but I do what I can.
Q. How will readers benefit?
The book offers an incisive examination of the types and characteristics of the region's hurricanes, as well as the risks faced by the Middle Atlantic states. It provides a basis for comparison, a basis for preparation and a way to put future storms in context. At the same time it is an interesting read, an extensive collection of short storm stories and hurricane damage photographs found nowhere else.
Q. What states are featured?
The book focuses on Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia. However, neighboring states are not neglected, nor are Washington, D.C., or the New York City metropolitan area. The human interest stories and lessons from past storms are of universal interest.
Q. What is the worst hurricane to visit the region?
There is no one hurricane that offers a complete package of utter devastation. The 'worst' depends on the type of event. For high winds, Hurricane Hazel in 1954 is the worst during the past 100 years. Hurricane Agnes, in 1972, was the most destructive region-wide rainstorm. Hurricane Camille, Virginia's deadliest natural disaster, ranks among the most extreme localized rain events. The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 or Chesapeake and Potomac Hurricane of 1933 are among the most destructive coastal hurricanes of the past century.
Q. Could a Hurricane Katrina strike the Middle Atlantic states?
Yes! The two major coastal urban areas, Hampton Roads, Va., and New York City metropolitan area have had close encounters with hurricanes.
Category 2 hurricanes nearly struck the Hampton Roads area in 1933 and 1936. Category 3--Katrina strength hurricanes--have tracked fewer than 50 miles offshore. The low-lying area, which is located in southeastern Virginia, has a population of more than a million. A direct hit of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane could inundate the homes of more than a half million residents.
Category 1 hurricanes have tracked over or within a few miles of New York City in 1821, 1893 and 1976. A Category 3 hurricane came ashore on Long Island, within 60 miles of New York City, in 1938. That disaster killed 600 people in New England. While an extremely rare event--it has not happened in the past 400 years--a Category 3 or stronger hurricane might follow a path much closer to the New York metropolitan area than the storm of 1938. Casualties could exceed the more than 1,000 people killed by Katrina.
Q. What are the region's greatest hurricane threats?
It is due for a destructive region-wide coastal storm. The last significant region-wide coastal hurricane was Gloria in 1985. The current active hurricane cycle began in 1995, yet the region has not had a major coastal event. Previous active cycles, typically lasting 25 to 30 years, featured at least a half-dozen.
The Mid-Atlantic is also due for a severe, extensive, inland windstorm. The last was Hurricane Hazel in 1954. It brought hurricane-force gusts to nearly the entire eastern third of the region. Inland hurricanes occur, on average, about every 50 years. Never before have so many people and so much property been at risk.
Q. What is your perspective on the 2009 hurricane season?
2008 was the fourth consecutive year without significant regional Mid-Atlantic hurricane activity. Hurricane history indicates that such lengthy lulls are rare during an active hurricane cycle. The chances of a notable hurricane in 2009 are definitely greater than 50 percent.
The respite won't last for the Mid-Atlantic or for the East Coast. The last Category 2 hurricane to make landfall north of Florida was Isabel in 2003. The last Category 3 was Fran in 1996. Yet, in the past five years, the Gulf Coast region has experienced about ten Category 2 or stronger hurricanes. When major storms return to the Eastern Seaboard, they will likely plague the area for several years. Both the coast and interior sections are at risk.